Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
